Why supercell storms are increasing

Another effect of the climate crisis: longer and more intense storms, which can move over long distances.

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supercell storms
Le supercell storms They are the most organized and violent thunderstorms that exist. In practice, it is an isolated and rotating thunderstorm powered by a mesocyclone, A rotating low pressure system that allows the storm to self-sustain for hours and generate giant hail, strong winds, and tornadoes. This occurs when a warm, moist air mass meets a colder air mass at high altitude, and the wind changes direction based on altitude.

With a supercell storm, tornadoes are longer and more devastating, become much more intense and structured, and can “self-sustain” instead of dying out quickly: the atmospheric structure that, in addition to the most devastating tornadoes, also produces downbursts (strong gusts of descending wind), torrential rains, and hailstones of exceptional size.

The increase in supercell storms in Europe is linked to a number of factors, primarily the climate crisis.
In particular:

Warmer and more humid atmosphere

  • Global warming increases the amount of water vapor the air can hold.
  • More humidity means more energy available for thunderstorms, favoring violent phenomena such as large hail, torrential rain and strong gusts of wind.

Increased atmospheric instability

  • Supercells require warm, moist air near the ground and cooler air aloft.
  • Rising surface temperatures can increase available convective energy (CAPE), one of the key ingredients for severe thunderstorms.

Changes in atmospheric circulation

  • Some studies suggest that changes in atmospheric patterns may favor more frequent configurations suitable for organized thunderstorms in parts of central and southern Europe.
  • However, the role of climate change on “wind shear” (the variation of wind with altitude), another essential ingredient for supercells, is still a matter of research.

The most exposed European areas include parts of Italy, France, Germany, Austria, Croatia, and the Po Valley region, where the combination of moist Mediterranean air and Alpine dynamics can favor very intense thunderstorms.Europe?

A 2025 study , conducted by a group of researchers from ETH Zurich and the University of Bern, entitled “ European supercell thunderstorms—A prevalent current threat and an increasing future hazard” , and published in Science Advances, comes to these conclusions:

  • In Europe, supercells are not at all rare: researchers estimate over 700 supercells per convective season across the entire continent, many more than previously thought.
  • The area with the highest current frequency is that of the Southern Alps, including sectors of northern Italy and the Alpine arc.
  • In a global warming scenario of approximately + 3 ° C, the total number of supercells in Europe would increase on average by about 11 %.
  • However, the increase would not be uniform:
    • strong increases in Central Europe, Eastern Europe and the Alpine regions;
    • decreases in Spain, the Iberian Peninsula and south-western France.

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