Super El Niño: The worst is expected between autumn 2026 and early 2027.

The scorching summer of 2026 should be considered only a foretaste. Super El Niño , one of the main causes of widespread tropical temperatures, will intensify its effects. According to NOAA, this forecast has a 97% probability of occurring between the fall of 2026 and early 2027.

Temperature

• Globally it tends to favor higher temperatures.
• It could contribute to new temperature records, especially because it adds to underlying climate warming.
• The most noticeable effects of El Niño generally come during the Northern Hemisphere winter. 

Rain and floods

• Peru, Ecuador and part of Chile they can receive exceptionally heavy rainfall, with the risk of floods and landslides.
• The Southern United States and California tend to get more rain.
• In reverse, Australia, Indonesia and some parts of South Asia they can experience drought and fires. 

Hurricanes

• El Niño tends to reduce hurricane activity in the Atlantic through an increase in wind shear.
• Conversely, it can favor cyclonic activity in the central and eastern Pacific. 

Oceans and fishing

• The unusually warm waters of the eastern Pacific are reducing the normal supply of cold, nutrient-rich waters.
• This could cause major changes in fish distribution and damage fisheries along the coasts of South America. 

In Italy, the situation is more complex. El Niño does not have a direct and uniform effect on Italy: it alters global atmospheric circulation and can therefore indirectly influence the location and strength of European weather systems . The European effects are generally more evident in winter.

The mechanism, very simplified, is this: El Niño produces a huge change in convection in the tropical Pacific, with planetary atmospheric waves, and a modification of the jet stream: hence a change in the high/low pressure configurations over the Atlantic and Europe.

Read also: 

• What can we do every day to fight the climate crisis?
• Why is it so hot?