Scientists warn: the ocean circulation system is at risk of collapse.

The cause is the uncontrolled climate crisis. A collapse would be a catastrophe, even for Europe.

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The news didn't get much coverage, but it's very important for our future: some scientists, examining the ocean circulation system (AMOC), are convinced that the climate crisis is irreversibly changing the temperature and salinity of seawater. This risks the system's collapse, with consequences reaching us today.

The AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) is a large system of ocean currents in the Atlantic, which also includes the Gulf Stream. It transports warm water northward at the surface and cold water southward at the depths, helping regulate European and global climate.

Its possible “halt” or strong weakening is mainly linked to changes in the density of sea water, which depends on temperature and salinity.

The main causes considered by scientists are:

  1. Accelerated melting of the ice
    Melting Greenland and Arctic ice caps are releasing large amounts of freshwater into the North Atlantic.
    Fresh water is less salty and therefore less dense: this makes it more difficult for surface water to sink into the ocean depths, which is the “engine” of the AMOC.
  2. Global warming
    Rising ocean temperatures make surface water warmer and less dense. This also hinders the sinking of water masses in the North Atlantic.
  3. Changes in precipitation and rivers
    More rainfall, increased permafrost melt, and increased input from large rivers could further reduce salinity in the North Atlantic.
  4. Overcoming a “critical point”
    Many climate models suggest that the AMOC may exhibit nonlinear behavior: beyond a certain weakening threshold, the system may collapse rapidly instead of gradually slowing down. This is called a "tipping point."

The potential effects of a sharp slowdown or collapse would include:

  • marked cooling of north-western Europe;
  • alterations in tropical rainfall and monsoons;
  • sea ​​level rise along the east coast of the United States;
  • impacts on marine ecosystems and agriculture;
  • changes in extreme weather events.

The latest study based on ocean observations and advanced statistical models suggested that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation could be closer to a critical threshold than many previous simulations indicated.

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